At a glance
Hormuz has been restricted since the US-Iran war began in late February 2026; UKMTO logged 18 attack reports in October to 13 October and two ships sank this week.
Energy price board Day, week and 52 weeks
| Market | Last | Unit | Day | Week | 52 weeks | As at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | ||||||
| Brent | 109.86 | US$/bbl | +3.72% | +4.9% | ≈ +79% | 16 Oct settle, December contract |
| WTI | 101.41 | US$/bbl | +3.51% | +10.4% | ≈ +77% | 16 Oct settle, November contract |
| Gas | ||||||
| Henry Hub (front month) | 3.17 | US$/MMBtu | ≈ -1.9% | ≈ -1.5% | ≈ +3.6% | 16 Oct, November contract (Investing.com); Trading Economics showed about 3.12, down about 3% on the week; Reuters settle not found |
| TTF (Europe) | 87.55 | EUR/MWh | +1.21% | ≈ +7.5% | ≈ +175% | 16 Oct close (Investing.com); highest since December 2022; last week 81.43, not the 78.07 shown earlier |
| Nuclear fuel | ||||||
| Uranium (spot) | 89.70 | US$/lb U3O8 | n/a | ≈ -0.1% | n/a | TradeTech weekly indicator, week to 9 Oct, down US$0.05; Cameco month-end 89.63 at 30 Sep |
| Uranium (long-term) | 97.00 | US$/lb U3O8 | n/a | n/a | n/a | TradeTech, a record held four months; Cameco month-end 96.50 at 30 Sep |
Chokepoints and shippingHormuz restricted
Strait of Hormuz
UKMTO had issued 18 attack reports in the Hormuz region in October by 13 October, and 12 vessels were attacked in the week to 11 October, the most since the war began, including six on 11 October alone. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank on 13 October after fire and damage, with all 21 crew rescued, and the bulk carrier Cape Dao, struck in September, also sank. Tasnim published video of the burning ADNOC-owned VLCC Al Maqam. The IEA puts September Gulf crude exports at 13.9 million b/d, more than 75% of the pre-war level, with 10.9 million b/d through Hormuz, and a VLCC from the US to Japan now costs about US$81 million against US$9.1 million last year.
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis
The 10 October strike on Riyadh airport killed at least 13 people and injured more than 300, and a second projectile killed one on 11 October. On 13 October Houthi missiles hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, causing a fire and, Reuters sources said, extensive damage to several floors; operations continued and the Jazan refinery remains shut since an earlier attack. The coalition struck fuel storage at Ras Isa and Hodeidah, a Houthi spokesman called Saudi oil facilities a legitimate target, and airlines including Lufthansa and Qatar Airways suspended flights. No direct US strikes on Yemen were reported.
Diplomacy
Iran said on 11 October that the US reply, relayed through Qatar, to its seven-condition plan to reopen the strait was insufficient and that it is no longer in the process of responding. OPEC+ ministers met in Riyadh on 12 October and said shipping and insurance costs have reached more than a third of the value of the oil. The World Petroleum Congress closed on 15 October, and Lloyd's List publishes its next Hormuz brief on 22 October.
Seatrade Maritime: UKMTO reportsDefenceWeb: tanker attacksIEA: Oil Market Report, OctoberBusiness Recorder (Reuters): Iran responseAl Jazeera: Houthi attacksWorld Oil: DhahranRigzone: OPEC+ in RiyadhEnergyNow: WPC day four
Pipelines: Kazakhstan and CPCDisrupted at times
Caspian Pipeline Consortium
No incident, drone threat or loading halt was reported from 10 to 16 October. Reuters reports Kazakh exports through CPC fell to 5.2 Mt in September from 5.7 Mt in August on Karachaganak maintenance, with total throughput of 6.0 Mt (1.59 million b/d); loadings to 25 September were nearly 50 Mt, about 4 Mt below 2025, against a 2026 plan of 72 Mt. KazTransOil said its own deliveries into the CPC system rose 42% to 3.57 Mt in nine months.
Kashagan and output
Nine-month oil output was 69.4 Mt, down 8.3%, with Tengiz at 88% of plan, Kashagan at 94% and Karachaganak at 82%, and maintenance at the two largest fields was postponed; the 2026 forecast is 96 Mt. Bloomberg says ExxonMobil blocked an NCOC proposal to settle the KZT 2.36 trillion (about US$5.2 billion) sulphur fine and ties about US$80 billion of potential investment to a settlement, while KazMunayGas decided to pay its share. OFAC extended the Lukoil asset-sale licence to 24 April 2027; the Kazakh stakes are not for sale. Kazakhstan's OPEC+ requirement for November is 1.628 million b/d.
Baird Maritime (Reuters): CPC throughputInterfax: CPC 2026 planTKS.ru citing Interfax: KazTransOil (Russian)Prime Minister of Kazakhstan: output (Russian)Claims Journal (Bloomberg): Kashagan fineRigzone: OPEC+ quotas
Producers and outlookOPEC+ meets Sunday
OPEC+ and the agencies
OPEC+ ministers met in Riyadh on 12 October, reaffirmed the June decisions and said shipping and insurance costs are at unprecedented levels; the eight producers, with Kazakhstan at 1.628 million b/d, keep November unchanged and meet on 1 November. The OPEC monthly report cut 2026 demand growth to 0.2 million b/d and lifted 2027 to 2.6 million b/d, with group output up 0.9 million b/d to 39.07 million b/d in September. The IEA cut 2026 demand by 2.6 million b/d to 102.4 million b/d, put global stocks 509 million barrels below end-February and agreed on 15 October to accelerate releases including more than 20 million barrels of diesel.
United States
EIA weekly data showed crude stocks down 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million and distillate down 2.5 million to 102.6 million, 12% below the five-year average, with production at 13.68 million b/d, the lowest since May. The October STEO sees Brent at US$105 in the fourth quarter, US$96 for 2026 and US$84 for 2027. Baker Hughes left the rig count at 603 on 16 October, with oil rigs down three to 459. Gulf shut-ins after Isaias were about 58% of oil output on 12 October per BSEE, and the Energy Department approved a 4 million barrel SPR exchange with ExxonMobil and BP.
Russia
Ukrainian drones set fire to the Ryazan refinery, about 5% of Russian capacity, overnight on 14-15 October, Novak said Saratov was also hit and President Zelensky said the three-day pause under the energy ceasefire was over. Russia began lifting its diesel export ban on 10 October after the US licence, which promised more than 300,000 t immediately and 500,000 t in November, although Vortexa puts third-quarter Russian diesel exports at only 190,000 b/d.
Rigzone: OPEC+ in RiyadhNewsquawk: OPEC monthly reportIEA: Oil Market ReportBOE Report: IEA releaseRigzone: EIA weeklyEIA: Short-Term Energy OutlookBOE Report (Reuters): rig countBernama: BSEE shut-insMoscow Times: Ryazan
Natural gas
US gas
Henry Hub November ended the week at about US$3.12-3.17/MMBtu, between 1.5% and 3% lower on the week depending on the source, after settling at US$3.262 on Thursday; the Reuters Friday settlement report could not be found. The EIA reported a 67 bcf injection for the week to 9 October against a 90 bcf five-year average, taking storage to 3,567 bcf, 1.3% above the five-year average; the next report is on 22 October. Lower 48 output is averaging 110.7 bcf a day in October and LNG feedgas 17.6 bcf a day.
Europe
TTF closed at EUR 87.55/MWh, up 1.2% on Friday and about 7.5% on the week, the highest since December 2022 and a third straight weekly gain, as Qatari LNG exports fell to 1.6 Mt in September and Norwegian outages at Kristin and Karsto cut supply. EU storage was 73.75% full on 12 October against an 89% five-year average, with Germany at 60%. JKM was about US$29.34/MMBtu.
Business Recorder (Reuters): US gas, 15 OctInvesting.com: Henry HubTrading Economics: US gasHAAWKS: EIA storageInvesting.com: TTFEnergyNews: TTF and storagePrestige Business: market update, 16 Oct
SanctionsActive
Russia: US
OFAC on 16 October extended the general licence that allows talks on the sale of Lukoil foreign assets to 24 April 2027; the Kazakh stakes are outside the sale. General License 135 of 9 October allows Russian-origin diesel imports until 7 April 2027, and the Greek-flagged Minerva Zen carrying about 280,000 barrels from St Petersburg was due at Wilmington around 11 October, although Vortexa puts Russian diesel exports at only 190,000 b/d in the third quarter. Lawmakers introduced a bill to block the diesel arrangement, and duties of up to 500% on Russian products under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act fall due around 18 October.
Russia: EU and UK
EU foreign ministers adopted the 22nd package in Luxembourg on 12 October with 1,569 listings, 826 companies and 743 managers in the military-industrial complex, the largest set ever, plus 77 listings over Duma elections in occupied Ukraine. It contains no new trade, shipping, energy or financial measures, so the price cap, LNG and shadow fleet rules are unchanged and no Kazakh or Central Asian entity was named. The UK made no new designations after its 38 on 8 October; Japan added export bans from 16 October and Australia rejected Russian diesel on 11 October.
Iran
OFAC announced Iran-related designations on 15 October under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting international financial networks and shadow banking, alongside new and amended general licences; the 8 October action against 17 shadow fleet vessels and 17 companies stands. US forces disabled the Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on 10 October, and CENTCOM says it has disabled four vessels, turned back 135 and destroyed ten IRGC-linked tankers since the blockade resumed on 14 July. Kpler recorded zero Iranian crude exports in September.
National Business: Lukoil licence (Russian)Clyde & Co: General License 135NV: Russian diesel tankerPenningtons: EU 22nd packageSteptoe: weekly sanctions updateOFAC recent actionsEurasia Review: CENTCOM
Energy minerals
Uranium and copper detail is on the Markets page.